Thursday, October 21, 2010


Well, that's what it looks like: analysis of large aggregations of human behavior yeild enough data to predict the future of the DOW with 87.6% accuracy.   Its even more analogous when you figure in that if the tweeters learn about the predictions, the outcome will change.

Twitter Predicts the Stock Market | Singularity Hub

Bollen, Mao, and Zeng fed the 9.8 million tweets into OpinionFinder and GPOMS and compared the trends they found to the Dow. The emotional lens that seemed to have a strong correlation to the stock market was ‘Calm’. When the calmness of tweets changed, two to six days later the Dow would fluctuate in about the same way.

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